When will the switch from Intel to Apple Silicon processors occur?

EveryMac.com's original speculation from July 24, 2020 is below. Apple completed the switch from Intel to Apple Silicon processors on June 5, 2023.

In the company press release, Apple reported that the company "plans to ship the first Mac with Apple silicon by the end of the year [2020] and complete the transition in about two years."

It also is worth noting that for the PowerPC-to-Intel switch, Steve Jobs said:

Starting next year [2006] we will begin introducing Macs with Intel processors in them and over time these transitions will again occur. So when we meet here again this next time next year, our plan is to be shipping Macs with Intel processors by then, and when we meet here again two years from now, our plan is that transition will be mostly complete. And we think it will be complete by the end of 2007. So this is a two-year transition.

As promised, Apple introduced its first Intel-based Macs in January 2006, but completed the transition in less than one year instead of two.

It would not be unreasonable to expect that internally, Apple hopes to complete the transition from Intel-to-Apple Silicon in less than two years, as well, and to have shipped an ARM-based Apple Silicon Mac in each product line by the end of 2021.

July 20, 2021 Update: Apple introduced its first publicly available Apple Silicon Macs -- a 13" MacBook Air, 13" MacBook Pro, and Mac mini -- on November 10, 2020 and followed up with its first Apple Silicon iMac on April 20, 2021.

August 17, 2022 Update: With the introduction of the 14" MacBook Pro and 16" MacBook Pro on October 18, 2021, Apple brought all of their notebooks over to the Apple Silicon processor. With the initial promise of completing the transition in "about two years" it remains to be seen whether the transition will be completed by the end of 2022 or sometime in the first half of 2023.

July 21, 2023 Update: With the introduction of the Mac Pro (2023), Apple discontinued the final Intel-based Macs on June 5, 2023 and completed the Apple Silicon transition.

Which Macs will be the first to use an Apple Silicon processor?

EveryMac.com's original speculation from July 24, 2020 is below. Apple kicked off its Apple Silicon transition on November 10, 2020 with both notebook and desktop systems, like the Intel transition, but this time went with two notebooks instead of just one and the Mac mini instead of the iMac. Apple introduced its first Apple Silicon iMac on April 20, 2021.

The rumors swirling around the first Macs to use Apple Silicon tend to be for the 13" MacBook Air or 13" MacBook Pro. Even without Asian supply chain sources, these are not bad guesses because they are Apple's most popular Macs.

Photo Credit: Apple, Inc. (macOS Big Sur on iMac & MacBook Pro)

There also are strong rumors of a new iMac, powered by Intel or Apple Silicon, with a design inspired more by the iPad Pro. This likewise is not a bad guess because the iMac (and iMac Pro) have not been updated in quite some time. These models would be the most logical for a "last hurrah" update using Intel processors, as well.

Although Apple is not the same company it was back in 2005 when it announced the switch from PowerPC-to-Intel, it still can be worthwhile to look back at how that migration proceeded. The software side of the migration literally has sequel names for binaries and code translation -- "Universal 2" and "Rosetta 2" -- after all.

Apple transitioned from PowerPC-to-Intel Macs in 2006 in this order:

• iMac & MacBook Pro 15" (January 2006)
• Mac mini (February 2006)
• MacBook Pro 17" (April 2006)
• MacBook 13" (May 2006)
• Mac Pro & Xserve (August 2006)

The Xserve is no more and the MacBook Air and iMac Pro lines did not yet exist, so the migration cannot be exactly in the same order. However, it is a safe bet that the Mac Pro will be the last to transition between Intel and Apple Silicon. A Mac tower is the most powerful and the most complicated from an engineering standpoint.

Accordingly, reasonable speculation is that the first Apple Silicon Macs again will be a MacBook Pro and an iMac (or iMac Pro, should Apple keep the presently neglected iMac Pro line). The MacBook Pro and iMac models represent a strong opening move to attract attention. Assuming that performance is strong, it would at least somewhat mitigate concerns that professional users may have about the transition. The last Apple Silicon Mac will be a Mac Pro when it is ready for its closeup.

Although the rumors point to a 13" MacBook Air or 13" MacBook Pro as the first Apple Silicon-powered MacBook Pro (and these could be a solid option if Apple manages to ship before the Christmas 2020 shopping season, but that definitely is an aggressive target). If the "by the end of 2020" is more of a New Year's Eve goalpost, the 16" MacBook Pro might be a better opening gambit strategically, particularly if it is substantially more powerful than its Intel-based predecessor. If Apple does not release Apple Silicon Macs prior to the Christmas shopping season, consumer focused Macs seem more likely to be released in the middle, just like last time.

As is often the case with rumors, there likely are multiple future Apple notebook designs and schematics bouncing around the supply chain, probably without final names, and Apple always could throw a curveball and bring back the regular MacBook name at some point during this transition. It is a bit peculiar that Apple has a MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, at the moment, but not a regular MacBook. Of course, by that logic, it is odd to have a Mac mini and Mac Pro without a regular Mac in the middle, but that has been the case for years and years now. If Apple were to discontinue the iMac Pro branding, it could change iMac to just Mac, but now that the Mac runs iOS apps, the iMac name is less confusing than it has been to new users in quite some time and there seems to be little reason to change it.

If it seems strange that rumors could point to a new iMac design with existing Intel processors and then an Apple Silicon-powered iMac soon thereafter, this actually is exactly what Apple did last time with the iMac G5 iSight (October 12, 2005) and iMac "Core Duo" models (January 10, 2006), so it should not be that unexpected by historical standards.

Is the switch from Intel to ARM-based Apple Silicon processors the end for the Mac?

Yes. For quite some time, it has been rather apparent that the iOS -- especially the iPad -- likely would eclipse the Mac.

When the iPad was introduced in 2010, EveryMac.com wrote:

As future versions become more powerful and capable, add new features, and become more varied to better meet the needs of different users, the iPad has significant potential to disrupt the computer industry... more-and-more users will consider buying an iPad or derivative products in lieu of a traditional Mac or Windows notebook... with a consumer-friendly entry-level price of US$499, a simple and easy-to-use design, and the potential ability to meet many users' entire computing needs, the iPad looks well-positioned to dwarf Mac sales in the coming years. The iPad very well could become the modern "computer for the rest of us."

Photo Credit: Apple, Inc. (Original iPad)

In fact, the iPad has become much more capable -- finally offering must-have features for power users like a fully functional file manager and external drive support starting with iPadOS (13) -- as well as surpassing the Mac in many respects by taking advantage of ideas and implementing features that are not even possible without a touch screen or the brilliant Apple Pencil.

macOS Mojave (10.14) and macOS Catalina (10.15) made it easier and easier to port iOS apps to the Mac and macOS Big Sur (macOS 11) and later versions of the macOS run iOS apps automatically on Apple Silicon Macs. With the marketshare of the iOS so much larger than the Mac and the Mac essentially transitioning to hardware with its roots in the iPad, it is clear that software and hardware development will be iOS first from here on out. This transition to the macOS running iOS software on iOS hardware is not all bad, but it effectively is the end of the Mac.

July 20, 2021 Addition: iPadOS 15 went one step further and introduced the ability to build apps for the iPhone and iPad with Swift Playgrounds on the iPad itself. This was the first time that a Mac was no longer needed for iOS development. Apple promised Swift Playgrounds 4 for "iPadOS later in the year" (2021) with the Mac version promised "in early 2022", yet another sign of the Mac's decreasing importance within Apple.

The iOS once learned from the Mac -- when the iPhone was released in 2007, Steve Jobs proudly declared that the device ran a version of the Mac's operating system -- but in recent years, innovation has been flowing in the other direction. Now, the student has become the teacher.

The student has yet to kill its teacher, but it has learned most of its teacher's techniques, developed many of its own, taken over the dojo, and is waiting patiently for its teacher to die. Life and death are a process, though, and the Mac will live on in name. Perhaps the Mac will live on in spirit, too.

Will ARM-based Apple Silicon Macs be the end of the Hackintosh?

Yes, but not immediately. For those not familiar with the "Hackintosh" term, this refers to the practice of installing macOS on a Intel-based PC. This mostly is of interest to those who enjoy a technical challenge, who want to save money, and/or who want to run the macOS on hardware other than that offered by Apple.

Historically, the primary hardware targets have been netbooks or small notebooks -- which largely evaporated once Apple sold a more affordable and capable MacBook Air -- and smaller, less expensive towers, which still remains viable because Apple long effectively had a gap in their desktop line between the Mac mini and the Mac Pro. Although adding the Mac Studio to the official Mac lineup in early 2022 essentially closed this gap, it still is expensive compared to many Hackintosh configurations.

Nevertheless, as long as Apple offers a version of the macOS that runs on Intel processors -- which the company likely will do for somewhere between two and five years after the announcement of Apple Silicon Macs -- the Hackintosh community will remain feasible. Once the macOS only runs on ARM-based Apple Silicon processors, where Apple will have ironclad control over the hardware, it would take Herculean effort for the Hackintosh to continue.

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